Human Error

Ever since Eve ate the apple, human error has been a critical component in everything from historical events to the birth of children. We've spent a lot of time in our lives answering the questions that are hardest, and eventually we reason it out either by trusting someone else or by getting things sorted out in our own head. But regardless of how we reason things out, are we right?

This weighed heavily on my mind as I drove home and just prayed that the guys tailgating each other through the 35F sleet on the highway wouldn't decide to swerve and avoid an accident, totaling Scoot and I in the process. I never took drivers education classes but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to have it figured that if you tail someone in sleet at 70 mph, you will hit them or someone/something else in the case of an accident.

It led to me think about just why planes are so much safer to travel in than cars. For a long time, the idea of flying was rooted in my head as a hugely risky and death-wish type of endeavor, but statistically, it's actually safer than driving your car to work. (Also of interest, more people die of car accidents in the US than die in Iraq from violence.) Key to all of this is still the issue of human error. With so many independent drivers on the road, every person's individual error in judgment is basically multiplied on the road whereas flying puts your life into the hands of just a few.

We sit 3 days a week in the sauna of a classroom on campus and hear about all of the statistical models, rules, assumptions and suggestions that statisticians use every day to justify or reject research claims but it all shakes down to the same thing - human error. And there's no way to put a limit on this noise amidst the analysis. Everything from a bad project design to unforeseen consequences of a treatment, inexperienced employees to a mis-type during data entry can lead to a misconception from research results. And yet, we seem to think that the justifications we propose to sort out this error will not in fact be as erroneous as the original. So in the end, in an effort to avoid human error, aren't we ironically also putting our own trust in it?

The carryover into today's society is apparent everywhere. The best-laid plans do fail, good intentions don't work out like expected, the predictions and estimations of BP's impact on the gulf coast is most likely erring on the side of optimism, and there is of course the potential for intentional error as well. And who knows what someone was thinking with this food idea?

So what hope is there in all of this? We've put our faith and based our reasoning on the assumption that someone knows what's going on, or that a group of people can reason with each other to finally figure out a truth in the big world which can be used to form all those other truths which we need to operate on a daily basis. So the final question, how much do you trust those Greek philosophers?

Finals

Hmm... where to begin? Let me just say that we had a pretty busy weekend this past weekend. Saturday alone included helping Amanda's parents host a Christmas party and then attending 2 other holiday parties that evening as well. Combined with a long Friday night, a long week prior and then a hurried hodge-podge Sunday with Christmas tree shopping just west of Zanesville and the Columbus Holiday pops concert, we've been everywhere and done near everything. And somehow I managed to fit some serious studying in there as well.

I credit Amanda with driving most of the time, thus allowing me to do my studying, and then God for somehow helping me remember stuff that I've been forgetting all quarter. The exam this morning went great and I didn't expect it to. I have been so worried about it ever since a month ago when I took my last midterm and I feel enormously relieved to get it off my chest now.

So before I delve into the next bout of studying with my statistics notes (non-existent) and my 2 pages of permitted cheat sheets, I wanted to get some ideas out of my head and onto the screen for your perusal.

Starting with some outstanding BBC news from last night, there was a fun little article about some people stranded in England enjoying the cold weather in style. We've had our own bit of snow starting last night, but nothing compared to this.

Russia probably would've been better off just sharing our GPS system, because crashing the launched satellites into the ocean doesn't quite seem productive to me. I love how they casually announce that it probably landed somewhere near Hawaii. No biggie, right?

No laughing matter, considering some tourists were injured in the attacks and a German died, but "alternative food"? That's putting it pretty plain, eh?

New blog to follow

Per the recommendation of my stats instructor I looked up a new blog which focuses on statistical errors in major polls, surveys and other printed items. It also has a sister blog which follows the published type of errors. I encourage you to check it out for your entertainment. My teacher should've known better than to encourage me to look at a blog cause now here I am typing wildly about things whilst I pay no attention to her efforts to teach how to find the mean using Algebra. Yep, you heard it, I'm learning Algebra and all of the old letters and symbols used to complete basic statistical calculations. I'm not trying to demean those people who don't know this stuff and are diligently paying attention right now. No, props to you all for trying to learn something new, this is the best pursuit in life beyond finding love in the friends and family around you and the sharing of such love. However, I am saying that I should not be wasting my time in this class right now since I've learned this in high school.